MLB DFS Tuesday May 10th

Strong Thunderstorms Pound Cincinnati

 

 Brief Summary (6:55 PM Update):

Alot of weather issues to keep an eye on tonight. Hopefully I can keep you updated with up to the minute thoughts and to do that I need you to follow the updates here or on twitter (@DFSWeatherMark)

 

DET at WSH seems not worrisome at all. The rain has behaved like modeled earlier in the day and has been off to the north of the nation's Capital. I expect it to remain there.  VERY LOW CHANCE OF A PPD, LOW CHANCE OF A DELAY LATE IN THE GAME (AFTER 10 PM)


A few widely scattered thunderstorms (seen below in the 8 PM simulated radar) will dot the region near PHL at ATL. Not expecting a major problem here. VERY LOW CHANCE OF PPD/DELAY

*********REDS ANNOUNCE VIA TWITTER THAT GAME WILL BE A LATE START BUT TO ME IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A PPD THREAT WITH QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TO GO*****

 PIT at CIN may be the game with the most worries tonight. All you have to do is look at the current and simulated radars and see there are potential issues:

Current radar above showing the rain near CIN.

Simulated radars for 7, 8  and 9 PM shown below:

Good news: a) they are dealing with thunderstorms, which are hit or miss by nature and MLB games and are generally able to play around them.

Bad news is a) some of these thunderstorms forecast for this evening have VERY heavy rain and are slow-moving as well. b) there is quite a bit of thunderstorm activity forecast for the region and c) they are righto n the northern fringe of some steady rain for the next 2 hours (though it is rather light). Certainly risk in this game. LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF PPD/MODERATE FOR IN-GAME DELAYS AND HIGH CHANCE OF A LATE START TO THE GAME

***IF THEY JUST WAIT THIS OUT THEY "SHOULD" BE ABLE TO PLAY. RISK THOUGH***

CHW at TEX will see thunderstorms nearby the stadium.

Current radar:

 Thunderstorms slowly drifting towards Arlington

Shown below is the simulated radar around the time of the scheduled 1st pitch:

9 PM:

We can see the thunderstorms close in on Arlington. VERY WORRISOME!  MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF PPD/DELAYS. Certainly need to watch this region.



SD at CHC will see bands of rain across the region near the time of the scheduled 1st pitch. Current radar:

And here is the simulated radar for the same time:

PLEASE NOTICE THAT THEY DO NOT MATCH UP YET THEY ARE FOR THE SAME TIME. THAT MAKES MORE MORE OPTIMSTIC THAT THEY MAY PLAY. ULTIMATE GPP PLAY

Here is the the simulated radar for 8 PM EDT:

And 9 PM:

******THE CURRENT RADAR HAS SHOWN DRAMATIC WEAKENING*********

The short term models have not caught on to this dramatic weakening in the rain. Thus I am feeling more optimistic

  MODERATE CHANCE OF A PPD/AN IN-GAME DELAY OR LATE START TO THE GAME

A very slight chance of a thunderstorm popping up and affecting AZ at COL. Rain has already ushed east and they should be good to go.

 

 

Good Hitting Environment:

-Impossible to start off with any other place than Coors for AZ at COL. Please this article for more on how the elevation in Denver affects a baseball game.

 

 

Poor Hitting Environments:

-KC at NYY will see cool temperatures and thus high air density. 

-HOU at MIN will see a breeze blowing in as well as cool temperatures.

 

In the scales used below, a 1 greatly favors the pitcher while a 10 favors the batter. All times EDT




KC at NYY 7:05: Wind nearly calm which is a 5. Temps in the mid to upper 50s falling into the low 50s. Air density is a 4 becoming a 3.

DET at WSH 7:05: SEE BRIEF SUMMARY ABOVE. Wind E 5-10 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 4. Temps near 60 falling into the mid 50s. Air density is a 4.

OAK at BOS 7:10: Wind W 6-12 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6. Temps in the low to mid 60s falling into the upper 50s. Air density is a 5 becoming a 4.

PHL at ATL 7:10: SEE BRIEF SUMMARY ABOVE. Wind SSW 5-10 mph which blows out to left-center. The wind is a 6. Temps in the upper 70s falling into the low 70s. Air density is a 7.

PIT at CIN 7:10: SEE BRIEF SUMMARY. Wind S less than 8 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 4 or a 5. Temps near 70 falling into the mid 60s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6.

MIL at MIA 7:10: The retractable roof will likely be open. Wind E 10-20 mph which blows in from left. The wind is a 2 or a 3. Temps in the upper 70s. Air density is a 7.

CHW at TEX 8:05: SEE BRIEF SUMMARY ABOVE. Wind SSE 12-25 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 2. Temps in the mid to upper 80s falling to near 80. Air density is an 8.

SD at CHC 8:05: SEE BRIEF SUMMARY ABOVE. Wind E 6-12 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 4. Temps in the mid 60s falling to near 60. Air density is 5 becoming a 4.

BLT at MIN 8:10: Wind E 8-16 mph which blows in from center. The wind is a 3. Temps in the low to mid 50s. Air density is a 3.

CLE at HOU 8:10: The retractable roof will be closed. 

AZ at COL 8:40: SEE BRIEF SUMMARY ABOVE.  Wind E 6-12 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5. Temps near 60 falling to near 50. Air density is a 10.

STL at LAA 10:05: Wind WSW 8-16 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7. Temps in the low 60s. Air density is a 5.

TB at SEA 10:10: The retractable roof will likely be be open. NW wind 6-12 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5. Temps near 70 falling into the low 60s. Air density is a 6 becoming a 5.

NYM at LAD 10:10: Wind WSW 8-16 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7. Temps in the low 60s. Air density is a 5.

TOR at SF 10:15: Wind W 7-14 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6. Temps in the low to mid 60s. Air density is a 5.